News & Insights

News & Insights

BOOK: JOE PUBLIC 2030

Predict-O-Meter

Joe Public 2030 makes five bold predictions about the future, which range from exciting and promising to ominous and discouraging. Through the Predict-O-Meter, we continuously assess the state of the healthcare industry to track the accuracy of the five predictions.It’s been a full year since our last Predict-O-Meter update, and we’re halfway to 2030. So how are our predictions holding up?

Speedometer
Needle
Utterly WrongNailed it

The Copernican Consumer

Speedometer
Needle
Utterly WrongNailed it

Constricted Consumerism

Speedometer
Needle
Utterly WrongNailed it

The Funnel Wars

Speedometer
Needle
Utterly WrongNailed it

Rise of Health Sects

Speedometer
Needle
Utterly WrongNailed it

Disparity Dystopia

Five Potent Predictions Reshaping How Consumers Engage Healthcare

FALL 2024 UPDATE

What influenced our latest rating?

A year ago, the Constricted Consumerism prediction was 100% on track, and that doesn’t change a year later. Whether it’s continued restrictions from insurers, like more prior authorizations (and the failure of congress to act on them), or the continued pressure on rural healthcare, consumers face an increasingly difficult healthcare landscape. And the future in that regard looks awfully dim. The impact of the new Trump administration on healthcare could be monumental, and there’s little reason to suspect that the next few years will be beneficial for healthcare consumers. Consider the millions who would face higher costs should the ACA insurance subsidies be allowed to expire. There was even talk during the election of shifting the ACA marketplace to create insurance pools based on healthcare need, or eliminating the rule requiring insurers to ignore pre-existing conditions. Both of these will be sold as more “choice” for consumers, but as with many promises in healthcare, the opposite will be true. We also see the continued slow but sure shift from employer-sponsored health insurance to companies providing cash allowances and sending employees out into that very same ACA market place.

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ORIGINAL PREDICTION

While consumers will become increasingly responsible for their own health and use of healthcare services, they will actually become less and less empowered in the choices they have for care, especially in higher-acuity, higher-cost situations. While many in the industry will continue to sing the praises of choice, the reality is most consumers will have far fewer choices moving forward, often in ways they might never ever consider or see.